Consider everything investors have been through in recent years: a global pandemic, rapid inflation, war in Europe, and volatile stock and bond markets. It’s reasonable to feel uneasy in the face of so much uncertainty.
Now imagine it’s the end of 2019 and you know what you know now. You’re asked to predict market returns over the next three years. Will stocks be up 25%? Flat? Down 25%?
Exhibit 1
Big Picture
Growth of $1 invested in S&P 500, January 1, 2020–
December 31, 2022
As you can see in Exhibit 1, the market was up almost 25% from 2020 through 2022.1 That includes last year’s 19% decline. Too often, people look only at year-by-year returns and don’t look at the total history of returns, which can be very informative.
Please see the end of this document for important disclosures.
Exhibit 2
Distribution of Returns Distribution of calendar- year S&P 500 returns, 1926–2022
We now have 97 years of research-quality data on stock returns. Exhibit 2 shows the distribution of annual returns over that time period, ranging from a year when the market lost almost 50% to two years when it gained more than 50%. The bulk of the returns are between –10% and +40%. When you look at a histogram like this, you get a sense of the distribution of returns, rather than a forecast of what any year’s return will be. The best prediction of what will happen next year is a random draw from one of these 97 years.
Exhibit 3
Two Up, One Down Distribution of calendar- year S&P 500 returns, 1926–2022
Let’s look more closely at the past three years. In Exhibit 3, the returns from 2020 and 2021 were positive, with 2022 negative. These three years to me seem representative of the history of stock returns: two steps forward and one step back. Two positive years and one negative. That’s about the way the world works.
But how do we explain the stock returns of these last three years, given the stress that people have felt with the pandemic? Ithink of it in terms of ingenuity and flexibility bailing us out. What happens when companies or individuals get hit with bad news? We don’t just sit there and take it—we try to figure out how to get back on track. That’s what happened here. The pandemic hit and markets dropped 20%.2 Then human ingenuity
kicked in by the end of the year. We had a vaccine and started distributing it at incredible speed. That innovation continued as businesses adjusted into the next year.
Exhibit 4
In Line with History
Let’s look at how the last three years compare with the previous 94. Exhibit 4 shows the returns on the S&P 500 index and US Treasury bills over the last 97 years. The first row is the 94-year time period of 1926–2019. The S&P 500 index compounded at 10.2% per year. Treasury bills, which we think of as being the riskless asset, compounded at 3.32%.3 We think of the difference between 10.2 and 3.32, which is 6.88 percentage points, as the reward for taking the stock market risk. So that’s the equity risk premium, almost 7% a year.
The next row shows the last three years. The S&P 500 compounded at 7.66%. Treasury bills were basically flat (0.64%). The difference between those two is also about 7%—7.02 percentage points. So, for the last three years, the risk premium of 7% a year is almost precisely what it had been the previous 94, about 7% a year.
In other words, the last three years in terms of equity returns have been “normal.”
What happens when companies or individuals get hit with bad news? We don’t just sit there and take it—we try to figure out how to get back on track.
How can we explain normal returns when it seemed to some people that the world was falling apart?Think of public financial markets as a giant information-processing machine. When bad news comes in, prices drop. When good news comes in, prices rise. The stock market every day is trying to set prices to induce investors to come in to invest. If the stock market had a negative expected outcome, nobody would invest. The stock market is constantly adjusting prices so that investors have a positive expected outcome.
One of the most important principles of investing is being a long-term investor with an investment plan you can stick with. The stock market will go up and down. It always has; it always will. If during this three-year period you felt like you had to bail out of stocks for some reason, then you had probably invested too much in stocks to begin with. But if you had about the right amount, for you, invested in stocks, therewas a good chance that you didn’t have to make any adjustments to your portfolio mix.
What will happen over the next three years? Who knows? The good news is, if you’ve planned for the range of outcomes, you won’t have to worry about relying on a prediction.
One-month Treasury bill data provided by Morningstar.
The information in this material is intended for the recipient’s background information and use only. It is provided in good faith and without any warranty or representation as to accuracy or completeness. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Dimensional to be reliable, and Dimensional has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this material.It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Before acting on any information in this document, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of this material is strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
This material is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where the availability of this material is prohibited or would subject Dimensional or its products or services to any registration, licensing, or other such legal requirements within the jurisdiction.
“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., Dimensional Ireland Limited, DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., Dimensional Japan Ltd. and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
RISKS
Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuateso that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.
UNITED STATES
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment products: • Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Dimensional Fund Advisors does not have any bank affiliates.
CANADA
These materials have been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. The other Dimensional entities referenced herein are not registered resident investment fund managers or portfolio managers in Canada.
This material is not intended for Quebec residents.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise noted, any indicated total rates of return reflect the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in share or unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or other distributions, and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AUSTRALIA
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, to the extent this material constitutes general financial product advice, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold anyinvestment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
NEW ZEALAND
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (incorporated in Australia, AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. This material does not give any recommendation or opinion to acquire any financial product or any financial advice product, and is not financial advice to you or any other person. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and for the Dimensional Wholesale Trusts the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product or financial advice product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold any investment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Anyopinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED
Issued by Dimensional Ireland Limited (Dimensional Ireland), with registered office 3 Dublin Landings, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland. Dimensional Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (Registration No. C185067).
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD.
Issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (Dimensional UK), 20 Triton Street, Regent’s Place, London, NW1 3BF. Dimensional UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – Firm Reference No. 150100.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland do not give financial advice. You are responsible for deciding whether an investment is suitable for your personal circumstances, and we recommend that a financial adviser helps you with that decision.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland issue information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
NOTICE TO INVESTORS IN SWITZERLAND: This is advertising material.
JAPAN
For Institutional Investors and Registered Financial Instruments Intermediary Service Providers.
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Japan Ltd., which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and is registered as a Financial Instruments Firm conducting Investment Management Business and Investment Advisory and Agency Business.
Dimensional Japan Ltd.
Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No. 2683 Membership: Japan Investment Advisers Association
SINGAPORE
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services license for fund management.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and should not be shown to prospective retail investors. FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN HONG KONG
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Hong Kong Limited (CE No. BJE760) (“Dimensional Hong Kong”), which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
This material should only be provided to “professional investors” (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance [Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong] and its subsidiary legislation) and is not for use with the public. This material is not intended to constitute and does not constitute marketing of the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the public of Hong Kong. When provided to prospective investors, this material forms part of, and must be provided together with, applicable fund offering materials. This material must not be provided to prospective investors on a standalone basis. Before acting on any information in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice.
Neither Dimensional Hong Kong nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors. Financial advisors in Hong Kong shall not actively market the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the Hong Kong public.
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back for Investors
Consider everything investors have been through in recent years: a global pandemic, rapid inflation, war in Europe, and volatile stock and bond markets. It’s reasonable to feel uneasy in the face of so much uncertainty.
Now imagine it’s the end of 2019 and you know what you know now. You’re asked to predict market returns over the next three years. Will stocks be up 25%? Flat? Down 25%?
Exhibit 1
Big Picture
Growth of $1 invested in S&P 500, January 1, 2020–
December 31, 2022
As you can see in Exhibit 1, the market was up almost 25% from 2020 through 2022.1 That includes last year’s 19% decline. Too often, people look only at year-by-year returns and don’t look at the total history of returns, which can be very informative.
Please see the end of this document for important disclosures.
Exhibit 2
Distribution of Returns Distribution of calendar- year S&P 500 returns, 1926–2022
We now have 97 years of research-quality data on stock returns. Exhibit 2 shows the distribution of annual returns over that time period, ranging from a year when the market lost almost 50% to two years when it gained more than 50%. The bulk of the returns are between –10% and +40%. When you look at a histogram like this, you get a sense of the distribution of returns, rather than a forecast of what any year’s return will be. The best prediction of what will happen next year is a random draw from one of these 97 years.
Exhibit 3
Two Up, One Down Distribution of calendar- year S&P 500 returns, 1926–2022
Let’s look more closely at the past three years. In Exhibit 3, the returns from 2020 and 2021 were positive, with 2022 negative. These three years to me seem representative of the history of stock returns: two steps forward and one step back. Two positive years and one negative. That’s about the way the world works.
But how do we explain the stock returns of these last three years, given the stress that people have felt with the pandemic? Ithink of it in terms of ingenuity and flexibility bailing us out. What happens when companies or individuals get hit with bad news? We don’t just sit there and take it—we try to figure out how to get back on track. That’s what happened here. The pandemic hit and markets dropped 20%.2 Then human ingenuity
kicked in by the end of the year. We had a vaccine and started distributing it at incredible speed. That innovation continued as businesses adjusted into the next year.
Exhibit 4
In Line with History
Let’s look at how the last three years compare with the previous 94. Exhibit 4 shows the returns on the S&P 500 index and US Treasury bills over the last 97 years. The first row is the 94-year time period of 1926–2019. The S&P 500 index compounded at 10.2% per year. Treasury bills, which we think of as being the riskless asset, compounded at 3.32%.3 We think of the difference between 10.2 and 3.32, which is 6.88 percentage points, as the reward for taking the stock market risk. So that’s the equity risk premium, almost 7% a year.
The next row shows the last three years. The S&P 500 compounded at 7.66%. Treasury bills were basically flat (0.64%). The difference between those two is also about 7%—7.02 percentage points. So, for the last three years, the risk premium of 7% a year is almost precisely what it had been the previous 94, about 7% a year.
In other words, the last three years in terms of equity returns have been “normal.”
How can we explain normal returns when it seemed to some people that the world was falling apart?Think of public financial markets as a giant information-processing machine. When bad news comes in, prices drop. When good news comes in, prices rise. The stock market every day is trying to set prices to induce investors to come in to invest. If the stock market had a negative expected outcome, nobody would invest. The stock market is constantly adjusting prices so that investors have a positive expected outcome.
One of the most important principles of investing is being a long-term investor with an investment plan you can stick with. The stock market will go up and down. It always has; it always will. If during this three-year period you felt like you had to bail out of stocks for some reason, then you had probably invested too much in stocks to begin with. But if you had about the right amount, for you, invested in stocks, therewas a good chance that you didn’t have to make any adjustments to your portfolio mix.
What will happen over the next three years? Who knows? The good news is, if you’ve planned for the range of outcomes, you won’t have to worry about relying on a prediction.
The information in this material is intended for the recipient’s background information and use only. It is provided in good faith and without any warranty or representation as to accuracy or completeness. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Dimensional to be reliable, and Dimensional has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this material.It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Before acting on any information in this document, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of this material is strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
This material is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where the availability of this material is prohibited or would subject Dimensional or its products or services to any registration, licensing, or other such legal requirements within the jurisdiction.
“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., Dimensional Ireland Limited, DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., Dimensional Japan Ltd. and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
RISKS
Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuateso that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.
UNITED STATES
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment products: • Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Dimensional Fund Advisors does not have any bank affiliates.
CANADA
These materials have been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. The other Dimensional entities referenced herein are not registered resident investment fund managers or portfolio managers in Canada.
This material is not intended for Quebec residents.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise noted, any indicated total rates of return reflect the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in share or unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or other distributions, and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AUSTRALIA
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, to the extent this material constitutes general financial product advice, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold anyinvestment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
NEW ZEALAND
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (incorporated in Australia, AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. This material does not give any recommendation or opinion to acquire any financial product or any financial advice product, and is not financial advice to you or any other person. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and for the Dimensional Wholesale Trusts the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product or financial advice product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold any investment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Anyopinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED
Issued by Dimensional Ireland Limited (Dimensional Ireland), with registered office 3 Dublin Landings, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland. Dimensional Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (Registration No. C185067).
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD.
Issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (Dimensional UK), 20 Triton Street, Regent’s Place, London, NW1 3BF. Dimensional UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – Firm Reference No. 150100.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland do not give financial advice. You are responsible for deciding whether an investment is suitable for your personal circumstances, and we recommend that a financial adviser helps you with that decision.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland issue information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
NOTICE TO INVESTORS IN SWITZERLAND: This is advertising material.
JAPAN
For Institutional Investors and Registered Financial Instruments Intermediary Service Providers.
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Japan Ltd., which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and is registered as a Financial Instruments Firm conducting Investment Management Business and Investment Advisory and Agency Business.
Dimensional Japan Ltd.
Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No. 2683 Membership: Japan Investment Advisers Association
SINGAPORE
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services license for fund management.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and should not be shown to prospective retail investors. FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN HONG KONG
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Hong Kong Limited (CE No. BJE760) (“Dimensional Hong Kong”), which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
This material should only be provided to “professional investors” (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance [Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong] and its subsidiary legislation) and is not for use with the public. This material is not intended to constitute and does not constitute marketing of the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the public of Hong Kong. When provided to prospective investors, this material forms part of, and must be provided together with, applicable fund offering materials. This material must not be provided to prospective investors on a standalone basis. Before acting on any information in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice.
Neither Dimensional Hong Kong nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors. Financial advisors in Hong Kong shall not actively market the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the Hong Kong public.
02/20/2023
https://my.dimensional.com/two-steps-forward-one-step-back-for-investors
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