I have been sheltering in place on a former dairy farm in rural New Hampshire—surrounded by more Scotch Highland cattle than people—and relying on my iPhone and Microsoft Surface Pro to keep in touch with the office via email and Zoom video. I haven’t sat in a restaurant in six months, so my dining out costs are close to zero while my grocery bill is sharply higher. I venture out every 10 days or so to stock up on supplies (Hannaford supermarket, Walmart, Tractor Supply, Home Depot) and order frequently online. Judging by the traffic on my dead-end dirt road, I’m not the only one whose habits have changed. It’s only a small exaggeration to say every third vehicle going up or down the hill is a FedEx or UPS truck making another delivery, most likely from Amazon.
For many of us, the daily routine has changed dramatically from a year ago. This writer is no exception. I customarily travel extensively for business, with well over 100 airline flights and dozens of hotel stays over the course of a year. Since March 18, the number is zero on both counts, and the near future offers little reason to expect any change.
With this shifting landscape in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that some companies have prospered during this upheaval while others—especially travel-related firms—have struggled. From its record high on February 19, 2020 the S&P 500 Index1 fell 33.79% in less than 5 weeks as the news headlines grew more and more disturbing. But the recovery was swift as well: from its low on March 23, the S&P 500 Index jumped 17.57% in just 3 trading sessions, one of the fastest snapbacks ever among 18 severe bear markets since 1896. As of August 18, 2020 the S&P 500 Index had recovered all of its losses and notched a new record high.
Many individuals are puzzled by this turn of events. For those under the age of 75, the news headlines are likely the grimmest in memory: Millions have found themselves suddenly unemployed, and storied firms such as Brooks Brothers, Neiman Marcus, and JC Penney have entered bankruptcy proceedings.
How can stock prices flirt with new highs while the news is so discouraging? One financial columnist recently observed that the stock market “looks increasingly divorced from economic reality.”2 Is it? Let’s dig a little deeper.
The stock market is a mechanism for aggregating opinions from millions of global investors and reflecting them in prices they are willing to accept when buying or selling fractional ownership of a company. Share prices represent a claim on earnings and dividends off into perpetuity—current prices incorporate not only an assessment of recent events but also those in the distant future. In some sense, the stock market has always been “divorced from reality” since its job is not to report today’s temperature but what investors think it will be next year and the year after that and the year after that and so on.
Moreover, the universe of stocks does not march in lockstep. At any point in time, some firms are prospering while others are floundering. This year’s wrenching economic turmoil has inflicted great hardship on some firms while opening up new opportunities for others. Based on this admittedly abbreviated list, it appears the stock market is doing just what we would expect—reflecting new information in stock prices.
No one could have predicted the tumult we have seen this year in financial markets. But investors would do well to focus on what hasn’t changed.
Markets are forward-looking, so focusing on today’s economic data is akin to looking at the rearview mirror rather than the road ahead.
Broad diversification makes it more likely that investors capture market returns that are there for the taking—including companies that do far better than expected.
Since news is unpredictable, a strategy designed to weather both expected and unexpected events will likely prove less stressful and easier to stick with.
Bottom line: read the newspaper to be an informed citizen, not for advice on how to navigate the financial markets.
Weston Wellington, a Vice President with Dimensional, is one of the firm’s market research experts. He works closely with financial advisors in the US, Canada, Europe, and Australia.
LEARN MORE
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Taking Stock of Lump-Sum Investing vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging
When It’s Value vs. Growth, History Is on Value’s Side
This information is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Named securities may be held in accounts managed by Dimensional. The information in this document is provided in good faith without any warranty and is intended for the recipient’s background information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this document are strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., Dimensional Ireland Limited, DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd, Dimensional Japan Ltd., and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
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CANADA: These materials have been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Unless otherwise noted, any indicated total rates of return reflect the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in share or unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or other distributions, and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND: This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, to the extent this material constitutes general financial product advice, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
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Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material are prohibited. This material and the distribution of this material are not intended to constitute and do not constitute an offer or an invitation to offer to the Hong Kong public to acquire, dispose of, subscribe for, or underwrite any securities, structured products, or related financial products or instruments nor investment advice thereto. Any opinions and views expressed herein are subject to change. Neither Dimensional Hong Kong nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors. Financial advisors in Hong Kong shall not actively market the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the Hong Kong public.
SINGAPORE This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services license for fund management.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. All information is given in good faith without any warranty and is not intended to provide professional, investment, or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this materiel, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd. does not accept any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any person’s use of or reliance on the information and opinions contained herein. Neither Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd. nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED OR DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD. Neither Dimensional Ireland Limited (DIL) nor Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (DFAL), as applicable (each an “Issuing Entity,” as the context requires), give financial advice. You are responsible for deciding whether an investment is suitable for your personal circumstances, and we recommend that a financial adviser helps you with that decision.
NOTICE TO INVESTORS IN SWITZERLAND: This is an advertising document.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED Issued by Dimensional Ireland Limited (DIL), with registered office 10 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2, D02 T380, Ireland. DIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (Registration No. C185067). Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by DIL to be reliable, and DIL has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this document.
DIL issues information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from DIL will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD. Issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (DFAL), 20 Triton Street, Regent’s Place, London, NW1 3BF. DFAL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by DFAL to be reliable, and DFAL has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this document.
DFAL issues information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from DFAL will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
RISKS Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.
Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market.
Is the Stock Market Divorced from Reality
I have been sheltering in place on a former dairy farm in rural New Hampshire—surrounded by more Scotch Highland cattle than people—and relying on my iPhone and Microsoft Surface Pro to keep in touch with the office via email and Zoom video. I haven’t sat in a restaurant in six months, so my dining out costs are close to zero while my grocery bill is sharply higher. I venture out every 10 days or so to stock up on supplies (Hannaford supermarket, Walmart, Tractor Supply, Home Depot) and order frequently online. Judging by the traffic on my dead-end dirt road, I’m not the only one whose habits have changed. It’s only a small exaggeration to say every third vehicle going up or down the hill is a FedEx or UPS truck making another delivery, most likely from Amazon.
For many of us, the daily routine has changed dramatically from a year ago. This writer is no exception. I customarily travel extensively for business, with well over 100 airline flights and dozens of hotel stays over the course of a year. Since March 18, the number is zero on both counts, and the near future offers little reason to expect any change.
With this shifting landscape in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that some companies have prospered during this upheaval while others—especially travel-related firms—have struggled. From its record high on February 19, 2020 the S&P 500 Index1 fell 33.79% in less than 5 weeks as the news headlines grew more and more disturbing. But the recovery was swift as well: from its low on March 23, the S&P 500 Index jumped 17.57% in just 3 trading sessions, one of the fastest snapbacks ever among 18 severe bear markets since 1896. As of August 18, 2020 the S&P 500 Index had recovered all of its losses and notched a new record high.
Many individuals are puzzled by this turn of events. For those under the age of 75, the news headlines are likely the grimmest in memory: Millions have found themselves suddenly unemployed, and storied firms such as Brooks Brothers, Neiman Marcus, and JC Penney have entered bankruptcy proceedings.
How can stock prices flirt with new highs while the news is so discouraging? One financial columnist recently observed that the stock market “looks increasingly divorced from economic reality.”2 Is it? Let’s dig a little deeper.
The stock market is a mechanism for aggregating opinions from millions of global investors and reflecting them in prices they are willing to accept when buying or selling fractional ownership of a company. Share prices represent a claim on earnings and dividends off into perpetuity—current prices incorporate not only an assessment of recent events but also those in the distant future. In some sense, the stock market has always been “divorced from reality” since its job is not to report today’s temperature but what investors think it will be next year and the year after that and the year after that and so on.
Moreover, the universe of stocks does not march in lockstep. At any point in time, some firms are prospering while others are floundering. This year’s wrenching economic turmoil has inflicted great hardship on some firms while opening up new opportunities for others. Based on this admittedly abbreviated list, it appears the stock market is doing just what we would expect—reflecting new information in stock prices.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Source: Bloomberg. S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. All figures are in US dollars unless otherwise noted.
No one could have predicted the tumult we have seen this year in financial markets. But investors would do well to focus on what hasn’t changed.
Bottom line: read the newspaper to be an informed citizen, not for advice on how to navigate the financial markets.
Weston Wellington, a Vice President with Dimensional, is one of the firm’s market research experts. He works closely with financial advisors in the US, Canada, Europe, and Australia.
LEARN MORE
1. S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
2. Matt Phillips, “Repeat After Me: The Markets Are Not the Economy,” New York Times, May 10, 2020.
This information is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Named securities may be held in accounts managed by Dimensional.
The information in this document is provided in good faith without any warranty and is intended for the recipient’s background information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this document are strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., Dimensional Ireland Limited, DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd, Dimensional Japan Ltd., and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
UNITED STATES: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
CANADA: These materials have been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Unless otherwise noted, any indicated total rates of return reflect the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in share or unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or other distributions, and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND: This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, to the extent this material constitutes general financial product advice, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
JAPAN
Provided for institutional investors only. This document is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Japan Ltd., which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and is registered as a Financial Instruments Firm conducting Investment Management Business and Investment Advisory and Agency Business. This material is solely for informational purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or enter into investment advisory contracts. The material in this article and any content contained herein may not be reproduced, copied, modified, transferred, disclosed, or used in any way not expressly permitted by Dimensional Japan Ltd. in writing. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.
Dimensional Japan Ltd.
Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No. 2683
Membership: Japan Investment Advisers Association
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN HONG KONG.
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Hong Kong Limited (CE No. BJE760) (“Dimensional Hong Kong”), which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
This material should only be provided to “professional investors” (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance [Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong] and its subsidiary legislation) and is not for use with the public. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence, or otherwise) the publication or availability of this material are prohibited or which would subject Dimensional Hong Kong (including its affiliates) or any of Dimensional Hong Kong’s products or services to any registration, licensing, or other such legal requirements within such jurisdiction or country. When provided to prospective investors, this material forms part of, and must be provided together with, applicable fund offering materials. This material must not be provided to prospective investors on a standalone basis. Before acting on any information in this materiel, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice.
Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material are prohibited. This material and the distribution of this material are not intended to constitute and do not constitute an offer or an invitation to offer to the Hong Kong public to acquire, dispose of, subscribe for, or underwrite any securities, structured products, or related financial products or instruments nor investment advice thereto. Any opinions and views expressed herein are subject to change. Neither Dimensional Hong Kong nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors. Financial advisors in Hong Kong shall not actively market the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the Hong Kong public.
SINGAPORE
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services license for fund management.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This information should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. All information is given in good faith without any warranty and is not intended to provide professional, investment, or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this materiel, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd. does not accept any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any person’s use of or reliance on the information and opinions contained herein. Neither Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd. nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED OR DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD.
Neither Dimensional Ireland Limited (DIL) nor Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (DFAL), as applicable (each an “Issuing Entity,” as the context requires), give financial advice. You are responsible for deciding whether an investment is suitable for your personal circumstances, and we recommend that a financial adviser helps you with that decision.
NOTICE TO INVESTORS IN SWITZERLAND: This is an advertising document.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED
Issued by Dimensional Ireland Limited (DIL), with registered office 10 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2, D02 T380, Ireland. DIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (Registration No. C185067). Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by DIL to be reliable, and DIL has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this document.
DIL issues information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from DIL will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD.
Issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (DFAL), 20 Triton Street, Regent’s Place, London, NW1 3BF. DFAL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by DFAL to be reliable, and DFAL has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this document.
DFAL issues information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from DFAL will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
RISKS
Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.
Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market.
10/23/2020
https://www.mydimensional.com/is-the-stock-market-divorced-from-reality
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