Every year at this time, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thrills fans and creates so much interest that it’s estimated one in four Americans filled out a bracket to try to predict who will win it all.1 I really enjoy watching the games and always fill out a bracket in a pool with my family. This year, I couldn’t help but see connections between investing and March Madness.
Let’s start with the similarities:
Picking winners is hard.
Maybe your NCAA championship bracket picks are as wrong as mine, but don’t feel bad. The odds of correctly predicting the winner of all 63 tournament games are astronomically high.2
If you want to do well with your bracket next year, what should you do? The tournament selection committee seeds teams from 1 to 16 in four regions. Always pick the higher-seeded team, and you’ll have a good chance of winning more games than most. It doesn’t mean you’re going to be the champion of your pool, but year after year, you’ll probably pick more winners than most.
With investing, rather than trying to guess winners, you can take an informed approach that relies on decades of academic research, and choose to buy the market. Over the long haul, US stocks have compounded at about 10% a year.3 Having a plan can help you position yourself to have a better investment experience.
Good luck and good strategy are not the same.
Every year, some money manager is going to have the best returns. Every year in each bracket pool, someone wins. But in both cases, it’s unlikely that they will continue to come out on top year after year.
When people say, “Look at all the money I made on this stock,” I feel it’s the same as when someone says, “I picked Fairleigh Dickinson!” Good for you—you got lucky.
How about the differences:
The thrill of participating in a March Madness pool with a lot of people comes from the possibility of winning the pool.
My family fills out a bracket each year, and we engrave the name of the winner on a little trophy. And to most people it’s only the winner who matters. I don’t even remember who in our family came in second last year.
Investing is different. You should have the goal of doing a little bit better than average. Taking unnecessary risks can lead to big losses. As investors, we must remain focused on trying to capture that long-term compounded return of the market, also known as the expected return. That means taking a cautious approach and avoiding the temptation of trying to pick unexpected winners or underdogs.
There’s always next year.
With the NCAA, there’s a new bracket to fill out every year. You get a fresh start.
With investing, your results are cumulative. There are no do-overs. There can be pain with investing. Unlike with filling out the brackets, a bad investing outcome last year sticks with you this year and always.
While there are certainly similarities between March Madness and investing, it’s crucial to recognize the key differences.
While there are certainly similarities between March Madness and investing, it’s crucial to recognize the key differences. When you’re picking brackets, sometimes the only way to be the big winner is to take big risks on underdogs, which can be a fun and exciting game to play. With investing, it’s better to take a measured and disciplined approach with the goal of pursuing higher expected returns while reducing risk. So enjoy the Final Four, but don’t confuse the risk of filling out a bracket with the risk of investing in markets.
The investment approach discussed does not assure a positive return or a positive investment experience. There are numerous ways of approaching investing, only one of which is presented here, which may not be appropriate for every individual.
The information in this material is intended for the recipient’s background information and use only. It is provided in good faith and without any warranty or representation as to accuracy or completeness. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Dimensional to be reliable, and Dimensional has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this material.It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Before acting on any information in this document, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of this material is strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
This material is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where the availability of this material is prohibited or would subject Dimensional or its products or services to any registration, licensing, or other such legal requirements within the jurisdiction.
“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., Dimensional Ireland Limited, DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., Dimensional Japan Ltd. and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
RISKS
Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuateso that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.
UNITED STATES
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment products: • Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Dimensional Fund Advisors does not have any bank affiliates.
CANADA
These materials have been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. The other Dimensional entities referenced herein are not registered resident investment fund managers or portfolio managers in Canada.
This material is not intended for Quebec residents.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise noted, any indicated total rates of return reflect the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in share or unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or other distributions, and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AUSTRALIA
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, to the extent this material constitutes general financial product advice, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold anyinvestment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
NEW ZEALAND
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (incorporated in Australia, AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. This material does not give any recommendation or opinion to acquire any financial product or any financial advice product, and is not financial advice to you or any other person. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and for the Dimensional Wholesale Trusts the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product or financial advice product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold any investment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Anyopinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED
Issued by Dimensional Ireland Limited (Dimensional Ireland), with registered office 3 Dublin Landings, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland. Dimensional Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (Registration No. C185067).
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD.
Issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (Dimensional UK), 20 Triton Street, Regent’s Place, London, NW1 3BF. Dimensional UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – Firm Reference No. 150100.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland do not give financial advice. You are responsible for deciding whether an investment is suitable for your personal circumstances, and we recommend that a financial adviser helps you with that decision.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland issue information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
NOTICE TO INVESTORS IN SWITZERLAND: This is advertising material.
JAPAN
For Institutional Investors and Registered Financial Instruments Intermediary Service Providers.
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Japan Ltd., which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and is registered as a Financial Instruments Firm conducting Investment Management Business and Investment Advisory and Agency Business.
Dimensional Japan Ltd.
Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No. 2683 Membership: Japan Investment Advisers Association
SINGAPORE
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services license for fund management.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and should not be shown to prospective retail investors. FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN HONG KONG
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Hong Kong Limited (CE No. BJE760) (“Dimensional Hong Kong”), which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
This material should only be provided to “professional investors” (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance [Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong] and its subsidiary legislation) and is not for use with the public. This material is not intended to constitute and does not constitute marketing of the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the public of Hong Kong. When provided to prospective investors, this material forms part of, and must be provided together with, applicable fund offering materials. This material must not be provided to prospective investors on a standalone basis. Before acting on any information in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice.
Neither Dimensional Hong Kong nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors. Financial advisors in Hong Kong shall not actively market the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the Hong Kong public.
Hoop Dreaming Is Fun in March. Investing Realities Apply across a Lifetime.
Every year at this time, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thrills fans and creates so much interest that it’s estimated one in four Americans filled out a bracket to try to predict who will win it all.1 I really enjoy watching the games and always fill out a bracket in a pool with my family. This year, I couldn’t help but see connections between investing and March Madness.
Let’s start with the similarities:
Picking winners is hard.
An informed approach improves your odds.
If you want to do well with your bracket next year, what should you do? The tournament selection committee seeds teams from 1 to 16 in four regions. Always pick the higher-seeded team, and you’ll have a good chance of winning more games than most. It doesn’t mean you’re going to be the champion of your pool, but year after year, you’ll probably pick more winners than most.
With investing, rather than trying to guess winners, you can take an informed approach that relies on decades of academic research, and choose to buy the market. Over the long haul, US stocks have compounded at about 10% a year.3 Having a plan can help you position yourself to have a better investment experience.
Good luck and good strategy are not the same.
Every year, some money manager is going to have the best returns. Every year in each bracket pool, someone wins. But in both cases, it’s unlikely that they will continue to come out on top year after year.
When people say, “Look at all the money I made on this stock,” I feel it’s the same as when someone says, “I picked Fairleigh Dickinson!” Good for you—you got lucky.
How about the differences:
The thrill of participating in a March Madness pool with a lot of people comes from the possibility of winning the pool.
My family fills out a bracket each year, and we engrave the name of the winner on a little trophy. And to most people it’s only the winner who matters. I don’t even remember who in our family came in second last year.
Investing is different. You should have the goal of doing a little bit better than average. Taking unnecessary risks can lead to big losses. As investors, we must remain focused on trying to capture that long-term compounded return of the market, also known as the expected return. That means taking a cautious approach and avoiding the temptation of trying to pick unexpected winners or underdogs.
There’s always next year.
With the NCAA, there’s a new bracket to fill out every year. You get a fresh start.
With investing, your results are cumulative. There are no do-overs. There can be pain with investing. Unlike with filling out the brackets, a bad investing outcome last year sticks with you this year and always.
While there are certainly similarities between March Madness and investing, it’s crucial to recognize the key differences. When you’re picking brackets, sometimes the only way to be the big winner is to take big risks on underdogs, which can be a fun and exciting game to play. With investing, it’s better to take a measured and disciplined approach with the goal of pursuing higher expected returns while reducing risk. So enjoy the Final Four, but don’t confuse the risk of filling out a bracket with the risk of investing in markets.
The investment approach discussed does not assure a positive return or a positive investment experience. There are numerous ways of approaching investing, only one of which is presented here, which may not be appropriate for every individual.
The information in this material is intended for the recipient’s background information and use only. It is provided in good faith and without any warranty or representation as to accuracy or completeness. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Dimensional to be reliable, and Dimensional has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this material.It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Before acting on any information in this document, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of this material is strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
This material is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where the availability of this material is prohibited or would subject Dimensional or its products or services to any registration, licensing, or other such legal requirements within the jurisdiction.
“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., Dimensional Ireland Limited, DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., Dimensional Japan Ltd. and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
RISKS
Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuateso that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.
UNITED STATES
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment products: • Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Dimensional Fund Advisors does not have any bank affiliates.
CANADA
These materials have been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. The other Dimensional entities referenced herein are not registered resident investment fund managers or portfolio managers in Canada.
This material is not intended for Quebec residents.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise noted, any indicated total rates of return reflect the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in share or unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or other distributions, and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AUSTRALIA
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, to the extent this material constitutes general financial product advice, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold anyinvestment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
NEW ZEALAND
This material is issued by DFA Australia Limited (incorporated in Australia, AFS License No. 238093, ABN 46 065 937 671). This material is provided for information only. This material does not give any recommendation or opinion to acquire any financial product or any financial advice product, and is not financial advice to you or any other person. No account has been taken of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should also consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and for the Dimensional Wholesale Trusts the target market determination (TMD) that has been made for each financial product or financial advice product either issued or distributed by DFA Australia Limited prior to acquiring or continuing to hold any investment. Go to dimensional.com/funds to access a copy of the PDS or the relevant TMD. Anyopinions expressed in this material reflect our judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change.
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL IRELAND LIMITED
Issued by Dimensional Ireland Limited (Dimensional Ireland), with registered office 3 Dublin Landings, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland. Dimensional Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (Registration No. C185067).
WHERE ISSUED BY DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LTD.
Issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. (Dimensional UK), 20 Triton Street, Regent’s Place, London, NW1 3BF. Dimensional UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – Firm Reference No. 150100.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland do not give financial advice. You are responsible for deciding whether an investment is suitable for your personal circumstances, and we recommend that a financial adviser helps you with that decision.
Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland issue information and materials in English and may also issue information and materials in certain other languages. The recipient’s continued acceptance of information and materials from Dimensional UK and Dimensional Ireland will constitute the recipient’s consent to be provided with such information and materials, where relevant, in more than one language.
NOTICE TO INVESTORS IN SWITZERLAND: This is advertising material.
JAPAN
For Institutional Investors and Registered Financial Instruments Intermediary Service Providers.
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Japan Ltd., which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and is registered as a Financial Instruments Firm conducting Investment Management Business and Investment Advisory and Agency Business.
Dimensional Japan Ltd.
Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No. 2683 Membership: Japan Investment Advisers Association
SINGAPORE
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services license for fund management.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and should not be shown to prospective retail investors. FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN HONG KONG
This material is deemed to be issued by Dimensional Hong Kong Limited (CE No. BJE760) (“Dimensional Hong Kong”), which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.
This material should only be provided to “professional investors” (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance [Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong] and its subsidiary legislation) and is not for use with the public. This material is not intended to constitute and does not constitute marketing of the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the public of Hong Kong. When provided to prospective investors, this material forms part of, and must be provided together with, applicable fund offering materials. This material must not be provided to prospective investors on a standalone basis. Before acting on any information in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice.
Neither Dimensional Hong Kong nor its affiliates shall be responsible or held responsible for any content prepared by financial advisors. Financial advisors in Hong Kong shall not actively market the services of Dimensional Hong Kong or its affiliates to the Hong Kong public.
04/26/2023
https://my.dimensional.com/hoop-dreaming-is-fun-in-march-investing-realities-apply-across-a-lifetime
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